RESEARCH FORECASTING THE DESERTIFICATION OF NINH THUAN PROVINCE

Abstract

Desertification is a process that normally occurs in arid, semi-arid regions or semi-dry moisture, causing the soil to lose its productivity for various reasons. Ninh Thuan, a coastal province in the south-central region of Vietnam, has a low annual average rainfall and high temperatures, which are considered as a prerequisite for desertification. This study was conducted in Ninh Thuan province to forecast a map of the environmentally sensitive areas and to analyze the underlying causes directly affecting the desertification of the study area. The whole province was examined with three indicative groups including (1) soil quality, (2) plant cover quality (Based on the land use planning to 2020), (3) climatic quality (Based on climate change scenarios and sea level rise). The combined index of the three examined groups was classified into five sensitive levels, including Non- sensitive, slight, moderate, high, and most (Desert barren land, desert sand, desert rocks). In 2035 the study area will have sensitive level III has the highest area, 94,250 ha, accounting for 28.08% of the total area of the study area; Sensitivity level II has an area of 27.56%, level IV accounts for 14.39%, desert has an average of 8.83%, desert rocks is 4.90%, has not been desert 4.25% and lowest is desert sand accounts for 1.56%.